Forecasting Multipliers for the "New-New" Monetary Aggregates

About the only certainty in dealing with monetary aggregates these days is that something will change every time one's back is turned. Recent experience is no exception. In the last few months we have seen (1) the adjustment of monetary data to new bench marks, (2) a conceptual revision to include traveler's checks issued by nonbank institutions in the various measures of money and (3) the construction of shift adjustments to abstract from the effect of portfolio shifts subsequent to the extension of NOW accounts nationwide. All of these changes could be a source of difficulty for the prediction, control and interpretation of monetary growth rates. Our concern here is the significance of recent changes for the first two of these issues